On Sunday, November 16, 2025, at 2:45 PM CET, the Italian national football team must beat Norway by exactly nine goals to avoid elimination from the 2026 FIFA World Cup — a scenario so improbable it borders on the surreal. The match, set to unfold at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza — better known as San Siro in Milan — has turned into a national obsession, a do-or-die spectacle that could redefine Italian football’s legacy. A 9-0 win isn’t just a tall order; it’s a statistical impossibility wrapped in desperation. And yet, here we are.
The Impossible Math
It started with a 3-0 loss to Norway in September — a result that didn’t just cost Italy points, it shattered confidence. The defeat triggered the immediate sacking of Luciano Spalletti, who’d taken over as head coach in August 2023 after a stint with Club Atlético de Madrid. His successor, unnamed in reports, inherited a team reeling from its third consecutive failure to qualify for a World Cup — something that hasn’t happened since the 1950s. To claw back from a six-goal deficit in the group standings, Italy now needs a margin of victory no European team has achieved in modern World Cup qualifying history. The biggest win ever? England’s 13-0 drubbing of San Marino in 2023. But Norway isn’t San Marino. They’re a disciplined, physically imposing side with a solid defense and a striker who scored twice against Italy last time out.
Sports analysts, speaking anonymously to FRANCE 24, put the odds of Italy scoring nine goals at less than 0.87%. That’s lower than winning the lottery with a single ticket. Even if Italy scores six goals — a feat they haven’t managed in a competitive match since 2002 — they still fall short. The pressure isn’t just tactical; it’s cultural. For a nation that’s won four World Cups (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006), missing three in a row would be a historical rupture.
A Nation on Edge
Walking through Milan on Friday, you could feel it — the silence in the pizzerias, the hushed conversations outside the tabacchi. Fans who once wore their Azzurri jerseys with pride now wear them like mourning bands. Social media is flooded with memes of goalkeepers holding nine fingers, of maps showing the distance from Milan to the 2026 World Cup venues in Canada, Mexico, and the United States — all now out of reach. The Federazione Italiana Giuoco Calcio (FIGC), headquartered in Rome, is bracing for fallout. President Gabriele Gravina, who’s led the federation since 2018, is said to be in emergency meetings with youth academy directors, hoping to fast-track talent before the next generation loses faith entirely.
“It’s not just about qualifying,” said one longtime Italian journalist, speaking off-record. “It’s about identity. When we don’t play in the World Cup, we don’t just lose games — we lose ourselves.”
What Happens If They Fail?
If Italy doesn’t score nine goals — and almost no one believes they will — they’ll slip into the UEFA playoff bracket in March 2026. That’s not a death sentence, but it’s a humiliating detour. They’d face one of the group runners-up from the qualifiers, likely either Ukraine, Serbia, or Denmark — all teams that finished above them in the standings. The playoffs are a lottery. And Italy, in recent cycles, has been terrible at them. In 2017, they lost to Sweden on away goals. In 2021, they were stunned by North Macedonia in a playoff semifinal — a result that left players in tears on the pitch in Palermo.
“The playoffs are a trap,” said former Italy midfielder Andrea Pirlo, now a TV analyst. “You think you’re getting a second chance. But the pressure is worse. The expectations are higher. And when you’re already doubting yourself, the odds get even longer.”
The Bigger Picture
This crisis didn’t happen overnight. Italy’s decline traces back to the 2010 World Cup, when they were eliminated in the group stage. Since then, the national team has been stuck in a loop: flashy youth teams, underwhelming senior squads, coaching carousel chaos. The Serie A, once the world’s most competitive league, has lost its global luster. Young Italian talents now flee to England, France, and Spain for development. The youth academies are full of potential, but the bridge to the senior team? Broken.
And now, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A failure to qualify would mean Italy misses its first three World Cups since the 1930s — a century of footballing dominance reduced to irrelevance. Even their rivals are watching. Germany, France, Spain — all have faced setbacks, but none have come this close to three consecutive absences. For Italy, it’s not just about football. It’s about national pride.
What’s Next?
The match on November 16 will be broadcast globally, though no official broadcaster has been confirmed yet. The ESPN schedule lists it as the most anticipated game of the qualifying cycle. If Italy pulls off the impossible, it’ll be remembered as the greatest comeback in football history. If they don’t — and most experts believe they won’t — the fallout will be immediate. Calls for the resignation of Gravina, a full overhaul of the FIGC, and a radical restructuring of youth development will erupt. The Italian media will demand blood. The fans will demand change.
For now, the team trains in silence. The coach won’t talk about nine goals. He says, “We focus on the next play.” But everyone knows: this isn’t about tactics. It’s about miracles.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is it that Italy will score nine goals against Norway?
Experts estimate the probability at less than 0.87%, based on historical match data since 1990. The largest margin of victory in UEFA World Cup qualifying history is England’s 13-0 win over San Marino in 2023 — and Norway, unlike San Marino, is a top-20 ranked team with a strong defensive record. Italy hasn’t scored more than six goals in a competitive match since 2002.
What happens if Italy doesn’t win by nine goals?
Italy will enter the UEFA playoffs in March 2026, where they’ll face one of the group runners-up — likely Ukraine, Serbia, or Denmark. They’ve lost in the playoffs twice in the last decade (to Sweden in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2021), and their recent playoff record is among the worst in Europe. A third failure would mark the first time Italy misses three consecutive World Cups.
Why is this such a big deal for Italian football?
Italy is a four-time World Cup champion (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) and has never missed three consecutive tournaments. Their last absence was in 2018 — the first since 1958. Missing 2026 would extend the drought to 12 years, shattering a century of global dominance. The emotional and cultural impact extends far beyond the pitch, affecting national identity and youth engagement with the sport.
Who is responsible for Italy’s current crisis?
The blame is shared. The FIGC has cycled through seven head coaches since 2014, often favoring short-term results over long-term development. The Serie A’s decline has reduced the quality of domestic competition, and many young Italian players now develop abroad. The failure to adapt to modern football — pace, pressing, positional flexibility — has left the national team outdated and outclassed.
Has any team ever come back from a six-goal deficit in World Cup qualifying?
No. Not once. In the 60+ years of modern World Cup qualifying, no team has overcome a six-goal deficit in the final match to qualify automatically. The closest was Wales in 2013, who needed a 7-0 win and a favorable result elsewhere — they got the win but missed out on goal difference. Italy’s scenario is unprecedented, making it less a sporting challenge and more a narrative of desperation.
Could Italy still qualify even if they don’t win by nine?
Yes — but only through the playoffs in March 2026. They’d need to win two knockout matches against other group runners-up. But Italy’s playoff record is poor: they lost to Sweden in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2021, both times in dramatic fashion. Confidence is low, and the team lacks the attacking firepower to dominate in high-pressure knockout games.